Montana State
Colorado State
Win Probability
Montana State travels to face Colorado State in a matchup the model decisively favors for the home side. Jase Butler projects as a 50% play to exceed 21 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Jed Miller sits at 46% for the same threshold—a narrow margin that masks a wider gap in overall firepower. The simulation hinges on Colorado State's depth: five Rams project above 45% for their respective production benchmarks, compared to none for Montana State at that rate. AccuScore's model won seven of eight games shaped like this one. For the Bobcats to pull the upset, Miller and Christian King would need to sustain their scoring while Colorado State's role players cool significantly.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | CSU | EV | MTST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -10.5 | -110 | -7.6% | -110 | +3.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -11.5 | -105 | -9.8% | -115 | +5.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -11 | -110 | -9.1% | -110 | +4.7% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -11.5 | -120 | -12.2% | -106 | +7.1% |
| Book | CSU | EV | MTST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -588 | -4.8% | +430 | +10.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -625 | -5.2% | +450 | +12.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -833 | -6.7% | +500 | +18.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 147.5 | -105 | -4.8% | -115 | +0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 147 | -110 | -4.6% | -110 | +0.2% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 145.5 | -115 | -1.7% | -110 | -3.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado State 77% to beat Montana State (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado State the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Colorado State a 77% chance of beating Montana State, against 23% for Montana State. Colorado State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Montana State project to finish 15.3–13.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 21% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Colorado State project to finish 14.5–14.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State | 15.3–13.7 | 16% | 21% |
| Colorado State | 14.5–14.5 | 9% | 23% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →