Montana
Oregon
Win Probability
Montana travels to face Oregon in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Ducks project to pull away in the second half, with their offensive firepower making the difference down the stretch. On games shaped like this one statistically, AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8 across similar win-probability configurations. Montana would need to manufacture an upset through sustained defensive pressure and efficient perimeter shooting to stay within range, but the data suggests Oregon's depth and scoring capacity will prove too much over forty minutes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | ORE | EV | MONT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -18.5 | -120 | -16.5% | -102 | +12.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -18.5 | -110 | -15.2% | -110 | +10.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -18.5 | -110 | -15.2% | -110 | +10.6% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -16.5 | -135 | -12.1% | +107 | +8.4% |
| Book | ORE | EV | MONT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -5000 | -4.4% | +1600 | +40.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3333 | -4.0% | +1150 | +16.2% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -3333 | -4.0% | +1050 | +10.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | -8.9% | -105 | +4.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 153.5 | -105 | -9.8% | -115 | +5.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 153 | -110 | -9.3% | -110 | +4.9% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 153.5 | -108 | -10.3% | -120 | +3.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 63.5%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon 89% to beat Montana (11%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon the more likely winner at 89%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oregon a 89% chance of beating Montana, against 11% for Montana. Oregon are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Montana project to finish 13.5–15.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oregon project to finish 13.7–16.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →