East Tennessee State
Arizona State
Win Probability
East Tennessee State travels to face Arizona State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. AccuScore's 50,000 simulations give ASU a commanding lean, with the game turning on whether ETSU can generate enough offence to stay competitive—the model projects a 14-point margin. In games with a similar win-probability shape, AccuScore's picks have gone 8 for 8. For the Buccaneers to pull off the upset, they would need to overcome a substantial disadvantage in a hostile environment.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | ASU | EV | ETSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -16.5 | -120 | -11.8% | -102 | +7.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -17.5 | -110 | -13.3% | -110 | +8.8% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -17.5 | -125 | -15.4% | -103 | +10.7% |
| Book | ASU | EV | ETSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -3333 | -4.6% | +1280 | +32.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2500 | -4.2% | +1100 | +21.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -3333 | -4.6% | +1150 | +24.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -0.2% | -110 | -4.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -0.2% | -110 | -4.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 146.5 | -108 | -1.9% | -118 | -3.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona State 88% to beat East Tennessee State (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona State the more likely winner at 88%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arizona State a 88% chance of beating East Tennessee State, against 12% for East Tennessee State. Arizona State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
East Tennessee State project to finish 17.0–13.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 21% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arizona State project to finish 15.6–16.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Tennessee State | 17.0–13.0 | 17% | 21% |
| Arizona State | 15.6–16.4 | 2% | 22% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →