NCAAB
Radford
San Francisco
Win Probability
Radford travels to face San Francisco in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home Dons. The model projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on three-point shooting: if either team's perimeter game misfires, the pace will dictate whether this stays tight or opens up. AccuScore's model has won 7 of 8 games shaped like this one. For Radford to pull the upset, their defense would need to force enough turnovers to overcome San Francisco's offensive efficiency over a full forty minutes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | SF | EV | RAD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars ↗ | -10.5 | -110 | -7.4% | -110 | +2.9% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -10.5 | -112 | -7.8% | -114 | +2.0% |
| Book | SF | EV | RAD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars ↗ | -556 | -4.5% | +400 | +7.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -625 | -5.3% | +400 | +7.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -0.2% | -110 | -4.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 153.5 | -106 | +0.7% | -120 | -6.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes San Francisco 77% to beat Radford (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Francisco the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Francisco a 77% chance of beating Radford, against 23% for Radford. San Francisco are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Radford project to finish 13.2–15.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San Francisco project to finish 16.1–14.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 16% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radford | 13.2–15.8 | 9% | 13% |
| San Francisco | 16.1–14.9 | 9% | 16% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →