NCAAB
Towson
Santa Clara
Win Probability
Towson travels to face Santa Clara in a game where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The model projects a Santa Clara victory built on offensive execution, with guards projected to contribute 80.3 combined points. Towson's path to an upset runs through perimeter defense and forcing enough Santa Clara miscues to stay within striking distance. In eight prior matchups with similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's pick went 8 for 8. For Towson to pull off the upset, the Tigers would need to disrupt Santa Clara's offensive rhythm and catch them cold from outside.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | SCU | EV | TOW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -13.5 | -114 | -6.0% | -106 | +1.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -8.3% | -110 | +3.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -8.3% | -110 | +3.7% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -15.5 | -108 | -11.1% | -118 | +5.1% |
| Book | SCU | EV | TOW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -1429 | -3.9% | +800 | +12.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -1429 | -3.9% | +800 | +12.1% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -1667 | -4.3% | +750 | +8.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -5.1% | -110 | +0.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -5.1% | -110 | +0.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -5.1% | -110 | +0.6% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 148.5 | -112 | -5.5% | -114 | -0.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Santa Clara 86% to beat Towson (14%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Santa Clara the more likely winner at 86%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Santa Clara a 86% chance of beating Towson, against 14% for Towson. Santa Clara are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Towson project to finish 15.4–13.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Santa Clara project to finish 20.7–10.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 49% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Towson | 15.4–13.6 | 12% | 22% |
| Santa Clara | 20.7–10.3 | 30% | 49% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →