North Alabama
UC Davis
Win Probability
North Alabama travels to face UC Davis in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Aggies project to win by roughly nine points, with the game turning on whether North Alabama can generate enough scoring—the Lions are projected in the upper 60s while UC Davis sits near 78. On the strength of North Alabama's defensive intensity and three-point shooting, an upset remains possible, but AccuScore's model has backed the home team in seven of eight statistically similar games. For the Lions to pull the upset, they would need UC Davis to cool below its projection while keeping pace on the glass and in transition.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | UCD | EV | UNA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -9.5 | -105 | -3.4% | -115 | -1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -9 | -110 | -2.5% | -110 | -1.8% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -8.5 | -120 | -2.7% | -106 | -3.0% |
| Book | UCD | EV | UNA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -455 | -2.3% | +340 | -2.0% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -476 | -2.7% | +330 | -3.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 148.5 | -112 | -6.2% | -114 | +0.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes UC Davis 78% to beat North Alabama (22%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UC Davis the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UC Davis a 78% chance of beating North Alabama, against 22% for North Alabama. UC Davis are at home and favoured on these numbers.
North Alabama project to finish 9.7–18.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UC Davis project to finish 15.1–14.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Alabama | 9.7–18.3 | 4% | 5% |
| UC Davis | 15.1–14.9 | 7% | 13% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →