Chattanooga
Louisville
Win Probability
Chattanooga travels to Louisville in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Across eight previous games with a similar win-probability shape, AccuScore's model went 8-0, a perfect record that underscores confidence in blowout predictions. Louisville's depth will be crucial: the Cardinals need sustained scoring beyond their lead options to run up the projected margin, while Chattanooga must find unexpected production to stay competitive. For the Mocs to keep this close, their perimeter shooting would need to defy projections and their defense would need to limit Louisville's transition opportunities. The gap between these teams, as the model sees it, is substantial.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | LOU | EV | UTC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -31.5 | -112 | -21.2% | -108 | +17.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -30.5 | -120 | -19.7% | -102 | +16.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -31.5 | -110 | -21.0% | -110 | +16.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -31.5 | -110 | -21.0% | -110 | +16.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -32 | -105 | -21.5% | -115 | +16.3% |
| Book | LOU | EV | UTC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.6% | +3300 | -14.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -1.0% | +2171 | -26.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 159.5 | -108 | -5.4% | -112 | +0.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 159 | -110 | -4.6% | -110 | +0.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 69.6%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville 98% to beat Chattanooga (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Louisville a 98% chance of beating Chattanooga, against 2% for Chattanooga. Louisville are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Chattanooga project to finish 14.1–14.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Louisville project to finish 18.2–10.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 54% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chattanooga | 14.1–14.9 | 9% | 11% |
| Louisville | 18.2–10.8 | 12% | 54% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →