NCAAB
Bucknell
Maryland
Win Probability
Maryland hosts Bucknell in a matchup the simulation favours decisively. Bishop Boswell has a 47% chance of exceeding 21 points, rebounds and assists, while Jayden Williams projects at 47% to clear 15 in the same combined category. The game turns on whether Bucknell can generate enough perimeter scoring to keep pace; the model sees Maryland pulling away to a comfortable margin. In eight prior games with similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's favoured side went 8 for 8. For the Bisons to pull off the upset, their depth scorers would need to outperform projections while Maryland's offensive threats misfired.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MD | EV | BUCK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.2% | +3300 | -27.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -20000 | -0.4% | +5000 | -16.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -0.6% | +4433 | -20.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 148.5 | -105 | -8.7% | -115 | +3.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 148.5 | -115 | -10.5% | -105 | +6.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 148.5 | -105 | -8.7% | -115 | +3.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 148 | -110 | -8.4% | -110 | +3.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 148.5 | -105 | -8.7% | -115 | +3.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Maryland 99% to beat Bucknell (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Maryland the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Maryland a 99% chance of beating Bucknell, against 1% for Bucknell. Maryland are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Bucknell project to finish 10.7–20.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Maryland project to finish 14.4–15.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 28% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →