NCAAB
Eastern Illinois
Indiana
Win Probability
Indiana hosts Eastern Illinois in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Hoosiers. Markus Burton projects as a 49% chance to exceed 25 points, rebounds and assists, while Jaeden Mustaf has a 49% chance to surpass 20 in the same combined category. Eastern Illinois will need to generate secondary scoring beyond JT Elder and Markus Blackwell, each at 50% and 49% respectively to beat 13 combined points, since Indiana's depth should overwhelm a visiting squad without reliable contributors beyond its top two. AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8 on games shaped this way in recent testing. A Eastern Illinois upset would require multiple Hoosiers to underperform their projections simultaneously while the Panthers' role players stepped into unusually productive games.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | IU | EV | EIU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | +0.3% | +3300 | -43.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.1% | +8000 | -33.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 145.5 | -105 | -6.9% | -115 | +2.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -5.4% | -110 | +0.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -5.4% | -110 | +0.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -5.4% | -110 | +0.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 145.5 | -105 | -6.9% | -115 | +2.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Indiana 100% to beat Eastern Illinois (0%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Indiana the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Indiana a 100% chance of beating Eastern Illinois, against 0% for Eastern Illinois. Indiana are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Eastern Illinois project to finish 9.7–18.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Indiana project to finish 18.1–13.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 47% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Illinois | 9.7–18.3 | 5% | 5% |
| Indiana | 18.1–13.9 | 2% | 47% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →