New Haven
Syracuse
Win Probability
Syracuse hosts New Haven in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Gavin Doty projects a 48% chance of exceeding 28 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Teshaun Steele has a 49% chance of surpassing 17—a gap that reflects Syracuse's scoring depth advantage. The game turns on whether New Haven can generate enough offensive production to stay competitive; across eight statistically similar games, AccuScore's model went 8-0. For the visitors to pull off the upset, their role players like Kheni Briggs would need to hit their 45% threshold for 17-plus combined points, rebounds and assists alongside their lead scorers.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SYR | EV | NHVN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -20000 | -0.9% | +3500 | -8.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -30000 | -1.0% | +4000 | -2.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.7% | +3300 | -10.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -0.7% | +3500 | -8.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -27590 | -1.0% | +2828 | -16.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 131.5 | -112 | +4.5% | -108 | -9.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 131.5 | -110 | +5.0% | -110 | -9.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 131.5 | -110 | +5.0% | -110 | -9.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 131.5 | -110 | +5.0% | -110 | -9.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 131.5 | -110 | +5.0% | -110 | -9.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Syracuse 98% to beat New Haven (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Syracuse the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Syracuse a 98% chance of beating New Haven, against 2% for New Haven. Syracuse are at home and favoured on these numbers.
New Haven project to finish 12.9–15.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Syracuse project to finish 16.1–15.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →