NCAAB
Mount St. Mary's
Xavier
Win Probability
Mount St. Mary's travels to face Xavier in a matchup the model favors decisively to the home side. Redd Thompson Jr. has a 48% chance of exceeding 22 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Chance Westry sits at 47% for the same threshold—nearly identical offensive pressure from each team's lead option. The simulation turns on Xavier's depth: Nikolaos Chitikoudis, Rolyns Aligbe, and Rubén Dominguez all project between 46% and 49% to clear their respective marks, giving the Musketeers multiple scoring avenues Mount St. Mary's must contain. Across eight prior games with similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's favored side won all eight. For the Mountaineers to pull the upset, their role players would need to outperform Xavier's supporting cast by a significant margin.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | XAV | EV | MSM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -26.5 | -108 | -15.2% | -112 | +10.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -25.5 | -110 | -13.1% | -110 | +8.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -26.5 | -105 | -14.8% | -115 | +9.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -26.5 | -110 | -15.5% | -110 | +11.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -26.5 | -105 | -14.8% | -115 | +9.7% |
| Book | XAV | EV | MSM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -1.2% | +3000 | +1.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -7.1% | -110 | +2.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 156.5 | -106 | -6.4% | -114 | +1.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -7.1% | -110 | +2.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -9.5% | -110 | +5.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 156.5 | -105 | -6.2% | -115 | +1.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 63.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Xavier 97% to beat Mount St. Mary's (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Xavier the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Xavier a 97% chance of beating Mount St. Mary's, against 3% for Mount St. Mary's. Xavier are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Mount St. Mary's project to finish 14.9–15.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Xavier project to finish 15.6–16.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 24% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mount St. Mary's | 14.9–15.1 | 9% | 7% |
| Xavier | 15.6–16.4 | 2% | 24% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →