NCAAB
Mercyhurst
Marquette
Win Probability
Marquette hosts Mercyhurst in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Nolan Minessale projects a 50% chance of exceeding 27 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Tennessee Rainwater has a 48% chance at the same threshold—a gap that reflects Marquette's overall advantage. The game hinges on whether Mercyhurst can generate enough perimeter scoring; Jake Lemelman sits at 46% to surpass 20 combined, but that would require near-perfect execution against a stronger projected opponent. Across eight prior simulations with similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's favored side went 8-0. For Mercyhurst to pull the upset, its role players would need to sustain production well above their individual projections.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MARQ | EV | MERC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.1% | +3300 | -31.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.5% | +8000 | -5.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -27590 | -0.4% | +362 | -47.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 146.5 | -115 | -1.5% | -105 | -3.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 147.5 | -112 | -3.5% | -108 | -1.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 146.5 | -115 | -1.5% | -105 | -3.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 146.5 | -115 | -1.5% | -105 | -3.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Marquette 99% to beat Mercyhurst (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Marquette the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Marquette a 99% chance of beating Mercyhurst, against 1% for Mercyhurst. Marquette are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Mercyhurst project to finish 12.5–16.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Marquette project to finish 18.1–13.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 43% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst | 12.5–16.5 | 14% | 0% |
| Marquette | 18.1–13.9 | 6% | 43% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →