NCAAB
Chicago State
Texas
Win Probability
Chicago State travels to face Texas in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Isaiah Johnson projects at 49% to exceed 28 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Jaylen Pazon has a 50% chance at more than 11. The visitor's ability to generate stops will determine whether this becomes a runaway or merely a comfortable Texas win. AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8 on games with this win-probability shape across other matchups. Chicago State would need to force turnovers and control the boards to keep the game competitive.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | TEX | EV | CHST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | +0.4% | +3300 | -48.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -100000 | -0.0% | +40000 | -29.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -6.0% | -110 | +1.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -6.0% | -110 | +1.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -6.0% | -110 | +1.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -6.0% | -110 | +1.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -6.0% | -110 | +1.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Texas 100% to beat Chicago State (0%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas a 100% chance of beating Chicago State, against 0% for Chicago State. Texas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Chicago State project to finish 8.3–23.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas project to finish 20.2–10.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 66% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago State | 8.3–23.7 | 4% | 6% |
| Texas | 20.2–10.8 | 6% | 66% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →