NCAAB
Incarnate Word
Oklahoma State
Win Probability
Incarnate Word travels to face Oklahoma State in a contest where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Jacob Walker projects to have a 49% chance of surpassing 26 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Ismail Habib sits at 46% for the same threshold of 23—a gap that characterizes Oklahoma State's overall depth advantage. The game hinges on whether Incarnate Word can generate efficient scoring; the model projects a 15-point margin, and closing that gap would require the visitors to exceed their simulation expectation substantially. Across eight statistically similar games, AccuScore's favored side won all eight. For Incarnate Word to pull the upset, Habib and Mekhi Conner would both need to operate near the top of their ranges while Oklahoma State's balanced attack misfires.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | OKST | EV | UIW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -20000 | -0.9% | +3500 | -8.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -50000 | -1.1% | +5500 | +14.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.7% | +3300 | -10.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -20000 | -0.9% | +5000 | +8.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -7804 | -0.5% | +4433 | +2.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma State 98% to beat Incarnate Word (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma State the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oklahoma State a 98% chance of beating Incarnate Word, against 2% for Incarnate Word. Oklahoma State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Incarnate Word project to finish 11.1–20.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oklahoma State project to finish 14.4–17.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 21% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 11.1–20.9 | 2% | 3% |
| Oklahoma State | 14.4–17.6 | <1% | 21% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →