NCAAB
North Dakota
Minnesota
Win Probability
When North Dakota travels to Minnesota in this NCAAB matchup, the simulation decisively favours the home side. Jaylen Crocker-Johnson has a 50% chance of exceeding 27 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Isaac Asuma projects a 49% chance at the same threshold—twin engines that should overwhelm the visitors. North Dakota's Josh Jones and Zach Kraft each project a 50% chance of surpassing 15 combined, but the gap in offensive firepower is the game's defining feature. On games with this win-probability shape across eight prior matchups, AccuScore's favoured side went 8-0. For North Dakota to pull off an upset, their perimeter scorers would need to sustain an unusually efficient offensive night while Minnesota's bench production dried up.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | MINN | EV | UND | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -26.5 | -105 | -15.4% | -115 | +10.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -26.5 | -105 | -15.4% | -115 | +10.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -26 | -110 | -14.8% | -110 | +10.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -26 | -110 | -14.8% | -110 | +10.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -25.5 | -114 | -14.1% | -114 | +8.0% |
| Book | MINN | EV | UND | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10000 | -1.1% | +2500 | -8.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -1.1% | +2800 | -3.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -1.1% | +3000 | -0.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -6814 | -0.9% | +3528 | +8.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 147.5 | -105 | -3.8% | -115 | -0.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 147.5 | -105 | -3.8% | -115 | -0.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 147 | -110 | -3.4% | -110 | -1.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 147.5 | -105 | -3.8% | -115 | -0.7% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 146.5 | -114 | -3.0% | -112 | -2.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota 97% to beat North Dakota (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Minnesota a 97% chance of beating North Dakota, against 3% for North Dakota. Minnesota are at home and favoured on these numbers.
North Dakota project to finish 11.5–16.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Minnesota project to finish 15.2–16.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 25% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota | 11.5–16.5 | 9% | 8% |
| Minnesota | 15.2–16.8 | 1% | 25% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →