Northwestern State
Baylor
Win Probability
Moneyline
NWST
0.9% win prob
Moneyline
BAY
99.1% win prob
Northwestern State travels to face Baylor in a matchup the simulation heavily favors the home side to control. Across eight similar games in AccuScore's historical record, the favored team won all eight, a clean sweep that underscores how decisive these spots tend to be. The game turns on whether Northwestern State can generate enough offensive firepower to stay competitive; Baylor would need to see its scoring fall well short of projection for the visiting Bears to have any realistic path to an upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | BAY | EV | NWST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -28.5 | -110 | -5.6% | -110 | +1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -28.5 | -110 | -5.6% | -110 | +1.1% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -28.5 | -114 | -6.4% | -114 | +0.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 149.5 | -114 | -3.1% | -110 | -2.3% |
| TwinSpires ↗ | 152.5 | +100 | -8.2% | -122 | +3.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 53.5%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Baylor 99% to beat Northwestern State (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Baylor the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Baylor a 99% chance of beating Northwestern State, against 1% for Northwestern State. Baylor are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northwestern State project to finish 11.2–18.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Baylor project to finish 17.5–11.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 61% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern State | 11.2–18.8 | 3% | 3% |
| Baylor | 17.5–11.5 | 4% | 61% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →