NCAAB
Wofford
Tennessee
Win Probability
Wofford travels to face Tennessee in a matchup the model strongly favors the home side to win. The Volunteers' depth will be tested early; Tennessee's projected offensive load hinges on whether guards can sustain the pace needed to build a lead before Wofford's perimeter shooters find rhythm. Across eight similar games in AccuScore's history, the favored side has won seven. For the Terriers to pull off the upset, they would need an unexpectedly efficient shooting night and Tennessee to struggle with ball movement in the opening half.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | TENN | EV | WOF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -8000 | -0.6% | +2200 | -22.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -15000 | -0.9% | +2200 | -22.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -20000 | -1.0% | +3000 | -12.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -3250 | +0.3% | +2000 | -24.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -6814 | -0.5% | +342 | -44.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 155.5 | -115 | -7.0% | -105 | +2.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 155.5 | -115 | -7.0% | -105 | +2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -8.9% | -110 | +4.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -8.9% | -110 | +4.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 156 | -110 | -7.4% | -110 | +3.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Tennessee 98% to beat Wofford (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tennessee the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tennessee a 98% chance of beating Wofford, against 2% for Wofford. Tennessee are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Wofford project to finish 14.1–14.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tennessee project to finish 21.4–8.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 86% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →