NCAAB
Purdue Fort Wayne
Duquesne
Win Probability
Purdue Fort Wayne travels to Duquesne in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Duquesne's projected offensive output will likely prove decisive; the model sees this game turning on whether Purdue Fort Wayne can generate enough perimeter scoring to stay close. In eight statistically similar games across other matchups, AccuScore's lean went 7-1. For the Mastodons to pull off the upset, they would need an efficient shooting night while forcing Duquesne into an uncharacteristically poor performance.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | DUQ | EV | PFW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -535 | -2.9% | +400 | +1.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -580 | -3.5% | +420 | +3.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -550 | -3.1% | +400 | +1.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -550 | -3.1% | +400 | +1.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -600 | -3.7% | +400 | +1.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -112 | -8.0% | -108 | +3.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 153.5 | -115 | -8.5% | -105 | +4.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -7.6% | -110 | +3.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -7.6% | -110 | +3.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -7.6% | -110 | +3.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Duquesne 79% to beat Purdue Fort Wayne (21%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Duquesne the more likely winner at 79%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Duquesne a 79% chance of beating Purdue Fort Wayne, against 21% for Purdue Fort Wayne. Duquesne are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Purdue Fort Wayne project to finish 13.5–15.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Duquesne project to finish 16.8–13.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue Fort Wayne | 13.5–15.5 | 7% | 7% |
| Duquesne | 16.8–13.2 | 5% | 9% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →