NCAAB
Stetson
South Carolina
Win Probability
Moneyline
STET
+2000
6.7% win prob
EV +20.4%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
SC
-2105
93.3% win prob
EV -1.1%
Polymarket
South Carolina hosts Stetson in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Gamecocks. Shane Blakeney has a 49% chance of surpassing 29 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Collin Kuhl projects at 48% to exceed 22 in the same category—a gap that reflects the talent disparity. The game hinges on whether Stetson can generate enough perimeter scoring to stay close; the Hatters will need their guards firing at peak efficiency for an upset. Across eight prior games with similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's favored side won seven. A Stetson victory would require a defensive breakdown from South Carolina and unsustainable shooting nights from multiple Hatters starters.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SC | EV | STET | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -4000 | -2.2% | +1600 | +7.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3000 | -1.8% | +1300 | -3.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7500 | -2.7% | +2000 | +20.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -2200 | -1.2% | +1400 | +0.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -10000 | -2.9% | +1300 | -3.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.4% | -110 | -1.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.4% | -110 | -1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.4% | -110 | -1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.4% | -110 | -1.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.4% | -110 | -1.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes South Carolina 93% to beat Stetson (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Carolina the more likely winner at 93%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Carolina a 93% chance of beating Stetson, against 7% for Stetson. South Carolina are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Stetson and South Carolina come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Stetson project to finish 8.9–19.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
South Carolina project to finish 13.9–18.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stetson | 8.9–19.1 | 7% | 8% |
| South Carolina | 13.9–18.1 | <1% | 14% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →