NCAAB
Drexel
Virginia
Win Probability
Drexel travels to face Virginia in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The visitor would need to construct an elite defensive performance to stay competitive; holding Virginia to significantly below their projection would be the path to an upset. On the offensive end, Drexel's scoring will likely determine how close they can stay, with the volume needed to overcome Virginia's advantage. AccuScore's model has won 7 of 8 games with a similar probability structure. For Drexel to leave Charlottesville with a win, Virginia would have to falter well below expectation across the full forty minutes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UVA | EV | DREX | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.5% | +8000 | -5.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -9962 | -0.1% | +732 | -45.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -7.0% | -110 | +2.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -7.0% | -110 | +2.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -7.0% | -110 | +2.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -7.0% | -110 | +2.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -7.0% | -110 | +2.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Virginia 99% to beat Drexel (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Virginia the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Virginia a 99% chance of beating Drexel, against 1% for Drexel. Virginia are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Drexel project to finish 15.2–14.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Virginia project to finish 21.5–9.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 74% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →