NCAAB
Sam Houston
Alabama
Win Probability
Sam Houston travels to face Alabama in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. AccuScore's model projects a comfortable win for Alabama, driven by a scoring advantage that puts the game well within reach. The Crimson Tide's depth in ball-handling and three-point shooting should prove decisive against a visiting team forced to keep pace in a potentially high-scoring affair. On similar matchups across eight other games, AccuScore's favored side won seven times. For Sam Houston to pull off the upset, the Bearcats would need to force Alabama into uncharacteristic shooting struggles while sustaining offensive efficiency for a full forty minutes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | ALA | EV | SHSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10000 | -1.0% | +3000 | -5.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -50000 | -1.4% | +3500 | +2.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -1.0% | +3500 | +2.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -7277 | -0.8% | +3528 | +2.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 171.5 | -110 | -3.6% | -110 | -0.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 171.5 | -110 | -3.6% | -110 | -0.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 171.5 | -115 | -4.6% | -105 | +0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 171.5 | -110 | -3.6% | -110 | -0.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 171.5 | -110 | -3.6% | -110 | -0.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Alabama 97% to beat Sam Houston (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Alabama the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Alabama a 97% chance of beating Sam Houston, against 3% for Sam Houston. Alabama are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Sam Houston project to finish 16.2–12.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 25% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Alabama project to finish 20.7–9.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 88% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston | 16.2–12.8 | 24% | 25% |
| Alabama | 20.7–9.3 | 18% | 88% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →