NCAAB
Cleveland State
Missouri
Win Probability
Cleveland State travels to face Missouri in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Tigers project to pull away in the second half, with their depth likely to wear down the Vikings as the game progresses. Cleveland State would need to control the pace and keep Missouri's scoring down substantially—the model sees a roughly even chance the combined total clears the market line, suggesting a slugfest favors the home team. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model has gone 7-1 across eight comparable matchups. For the Vikings to pull the upset, they would need to limit Missouri's efficiency on offense and keep the game closer than the 24-point projection suggests.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MIZ | EV | CLE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10000 | -0.7% | +3000 | -12.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -50000 | -1.1% | +3500 | -6.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -0.7% | +3500 | -6.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -6814 | -0.5% | +627 | -41.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 159.5 | -115 | -3.4% | -105 | -1.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 159.5 | -115 | -3.4% | -105 | -1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 160 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 159.5 | -115 | -3.4% | -105 | -1.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Missouri 98% to beat Cleveland State (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Missouri the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Missouri a 98% chance of beating Cleveland State, against 2% for Cleveland State. Missouri are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Cleveland State project to finish 9.7–18.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Missouri project to finish 16.4–15.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 41% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland State | 9.7–18.3 | 3% | 3% |
| Missouri | 16.4–15.6 | 2% | 41% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →