NCAAB
South Dakota State
Kansas State
Win Probability
South Dakota State visits Kansas State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Wildcats project to pull away in the second half, with their depth likely to wear down the Jackrabbits over 40 minutes. Across eight similar games from the model's history, the favoured team won all eight, a perfect record that underscores how rarely the underdog breaks through in these spots. For South Dakota State to upset Kansas State, they would need to keep pace offensively while forcing turnovers late—a narrow path against a team built to run its system without disruption.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | KSU | EV | SDST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -700 | -2.3% | +500 | -0.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -690 | -2.3% | +480 | -1.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -700 | -2.3% | +500 | -0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | -700 | -2.3% | +500 | -0.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -800 | -3.1% | +500 | -0.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 159.5 | -108 | -4.8% | -112 | +0.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 159.5 | -105 | -4.2% | -115 | -0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Kansas State 83% to beat South Dakota State (17%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Kansas State the more likely winner at 83%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kansas State a 83% chance of beating South Dakota State, against 17% for South Dakota State. Kansas State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
South Dakota State project to finish 15.0–12.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kansas State project to finish 13.9–16.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota State | 15.0–12.0 | 20% | 17% |
| Kansas State | 13.9–16.1 | <1% | 20% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →