NCAAB
Northern Arizona
UNLV
Win Probability
Northern Arizona travels to UNLV in a game where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Across eight statistically similar matchups, AccuScore's model has gone 7-1, a record that underscores how rarely it finds this configuration competitive. The Rebels' depth should control the pace; the question is whether Northern Arizona can stay close enough to keep the total competitive. For the Lumberjacks to pull the upset, their offense would need to operate far above projection and force UNLV into an uncharacteristically poor shooting night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UNLV | EV | NAU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -5000 | -1.5% | +1800 | -3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -8000 | -1.9% | +2200 | +6.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -5000 | -1.5% | +1450 | -12.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7500 | -1.8% | +2000 | +1.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -6000 | -1.7% | +2200 | +6.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -115 | -6.5% | -105 | +2.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 153.5 | -115 | -6.5% | -105 | +2.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 153.5 | -115 | -6.5% | -105 | +2.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 154 | -110 | -6.8% | -110 | +2.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -8.1% | -110 | +3.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes UNLV 95% to beat Northern Arizona (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UNLV the more likely winner at 95%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UNLV a 95% chance of beating Northern Arizona, against 5% for Northern Arizona. UNLV are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northern Arizona project to finish 7.2–20.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UNLV project to finish 17.4–12.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Arizona | 7.2–20.8 | 1% | 2% |
| UNLV | 17.4–12.6 | 14% | 20% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →