NCAAB
North Florida
California Baptist
Win Probability
North Florida visits California Baptist in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the host. The Lancers project to 83.5 points, with their offense needing to contain UNF's pace and limit second chances—a game that turns on whether California Baptist can control the glass and transition game. In eight prior contests with similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's model went 8-0, a perfect record that underscores how rarely the underdog emerges in spots this lopsided. For North Florida to pull the upset, the Ospreys would need to force California Baptist into extended droughts and convert their own chances at a rate well above projection.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | CBU | EV | UNF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -675 | -0.9% | +490 | -7.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -720 | -1.3% | +500 | -6.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -700 | -1.1% | +500 | -6.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -650 | -0.7% | +460 | -9.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -750 | -1.6% | +475 | -8.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 158.5 | -112 | -9.8% | -108 | +5.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 158.5 | -115 | -10.3% | -105 | +6.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | -9.4% | -110 | +4.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | -9.4% | -110 | +4.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | -9.4% | -110 | +4.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes California Baptist 86% to beat North Florida (14%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes California Baptist the more likely winner at 86%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives California Baptist a 86% chance of beating North Florida, against 14% for North Florida. California Baptist are at home and favoured on these numbers.
North Florida project to finish 9.2–19.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
California Baptist project to finish 20.8–11.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Florida | 9.2–19.8 | 4% | 6% |
| California Baptist | 20.8–11.2 | 22% | 23% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →