NCAAB
Cal State Fullerton
San Diego State
Win Probability
Cal State Fullerton travels to San Diego State in a matchup the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Aztecs project to pull away in the second half, with their depth creating separation that the Titans will struggle to match. AccuScore's model on games shaped like this one has won 7 of 8 times. For Cal State Fullerton to pull the upset, it would need to keep the game tight through the middle periods and catch San Diego State in an uncharacteristically cold shooting night. The margin hinges on whether Fullerton can stay close enough to make the final minutes competitive.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SDSU | EV | CSUF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1650 | -1.5% | +950 | -5.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -2100 | -2.1% | +1000 | -3.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -1400 | -1.0% | +825 | -10.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -2000 | -2.0% | +1050 | -1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -2500 | -2.4% | +1100 | +1.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -6.6% | -105 | +2.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -5.7% | -110 | +1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -5.7% | -110 | +1.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -5.7% | -110 | +1.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -6.6% | -105 | +2.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes San Diego State 92% to beat Cal State Fullerton (9%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Diego State the more likely winner at 92%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Diego State a 92% chance of beating Cal State Fullerton, against 9% for Cal State Fullerton. San Diego State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Cal State Fullerton project to finish 13.9–16.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San Diego State project to finish 17.1–9.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 43% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal State Fullerton | 13.9–16.1 | 6% | 7% |
| San Diego State | 17.1–9.9 | 13% | 43% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →