NCAAB
Radford
California
Win Probability
Radford travels to face California in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Mathieu Grujicic projects at a 50% chance to exceed 21 points, rebounds and assists, while Nojus Indrusaitis has a 46% chance to surpass 25 in the same category—a gap that reflects the hosts' overall advantage. The game turns on whether Radford can generate enough offensive production to keep pace, since California's depth means scoring will likely come from multiple sources. On similarly shaped games across eight other matchups, AccuScore's favored side has won seven. For Radford to pull the upset, their lead scorers would need to substantially outperform their projections while California's supporting cast underperforms.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | CAL | EV | RAD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1600 | -3.5% | +900 | +12.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -2100 | -4.1% | +980 | +17.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -1600 | -3.5% | +875 | +10.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -2000 | -4.0% | +1100 | +24.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -3582 | -5.0% | +814 | +6.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 156.5 | -115 | +2.2% | -105 | -6.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 157.5 | -115 | -0.3% | -105 | -4.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 157.5 | -105 | +1.9% | -115 | -6.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 157 | -110 | +2.1% | -110 | -6.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes California 88% to beat Radford (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes California the more likely winner at 88%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives California a 88% chance of beating Radford, against 12% for Radford. California are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Radford (0-1 so far) project to finish 12.1–16.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
California project to finish 13.2–17.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radford | 12.1–16.9 | 7% | 7% |
| California | 13.2–17.8 | <1% | 8% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Radford and California come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.