NCAAB
Bellarmine
Indiana
Win Probability
Bellarmine travels to face Indiana in a matchup the simulation decisively favors the hosts. On 50,000 simulations, the model leans heavily toward the Hoosiers, who project to pull away in the second half. The game hinges on whether Bellarmine can keep pace from three-point range; across eight similarly lopsided matchups in AccuScore's history, the favored side won all eight. For the Knights to stay competitive, they would need to both limit Indiana's scoring and sustain an offensive rhythm that the projection suggests will elude them.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | IU | EV | BELL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -20000 | -0.8% | +3500 | -14.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.9% | +7000 | +21.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -27590 | -0.8% | +279 | -46.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -108 | +1.1% | -112 | -5.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | +0.7% | -110 | -5.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | +0.7% | -110 | -5.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | +0.7% | -110 | -5.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | +0.7% | -110 | -5.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Indiana 98% to beat Bellarmine (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Indiana the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Indiana a 98% chance of beating Bellarmine, against 2% for Bellarmine. Indiana are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Bellarmine (0-1 so far) project to finish 10.7–18.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Indiana (1-0 so far) project to finish 18.5–13.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 51% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bellarmine | 10.7–18.3 | 6% | 7% |
| Indiana | 18.5–13.5 | 2% | 51% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Bellarmine and Indiana come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.