Chicago State
Incarnate Word
Win Probability
Chicago State travels to face Incarnate Word in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Cardinals project to win by roughly eight points, with the outcome turning on whether Chicago State can generate sufficient offensive firepower to stay within striking distance. Across eight statistically similar games, AccuScore's model has gone 6-2, a record that suggests real predictive value in this configuration. For the Cougars to pull the upset, they would need to exceed their projected scoring total significantly and force Incarnate Word into an uncharacteristically poor shooting night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UIW | EV | CHST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -298 | +0.5% | +240 | -8.5% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -385 | -2.4% | +275 | -4.2% |
| Hard Rock Bet ↗ | -375 | -2.1% | +275 | -4.2% |
| betPARX ↗ | -385 | -2.4% | +275 | -4.2% |
| TwinSpires ↗ | -385 | -2.4% | +275 | -4.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 145.5 | -105 | -2.7% | -115 | -1.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -6.0% | -110 | +1.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 146.5 | -104 | -4.8% | -120 | -0.6% |
| Hard Rock Bet ↗ | 146.5 | +100 | -3.9% | -120 | -0.6% |
| betPARX ↗ | 146.5 | -103 | -4.6% | -120 | -0.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 75.6%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Incarnate Word 76% to beat Chicago State (24%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Incarnate Word the more likely winner at 76%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Incarnate Word a 76% chance of beating Chicago State, against 24% for Chicago State. Incarnate Word are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Chicago State (0-1 so far) project to finish 7.3–24.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Incarnate Word (0-1 so far) project to finish 9.5–22.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago State | 7.3–24.7 | 3% | 5% |
| Incarnate Word | 9.5–22.5 | 1% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Chicago State and Incarnate Word come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Incarnate Word have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).