NCAAB
Mercyhurst
Notre Dame
Win Probability
Moneyline
MERC
+2000
6.0% win prob
EV +13.0%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
ND
-4000
94.0% win prob
EV -1.8%
DraftKings
Mercyhurst travels to Notre Dame in a matchup the simulation favours decisively toward the home side. Notre Dame's offense will need to maintain pace; the model projects the Fighting Irish to reach the low 80s, with that scoring level proving decisive against a Mercyhurst team expected in the low 60s. Across eight past games with similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's pick went 8–0. The game turns on whether Mercyhurst can generate enough offensive pressure to keep the total competitive—a 47% proposition in the model's view. For the Lakers to pull off the upset, they would need to substantially exceed their projected output while holding Notre Dame well below its mean.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | ND | EV | MERC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -4000 | -1.8% | +1600 | +1.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4500 | -2.0% | +1600 | +1.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7500 | -2.4% | +2000 | +13.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -5000 | -2.1% | +2000 | +13.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -9962 | -2.5% | +232 | -40.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 142.5 | -112 | -0.2% | -108 | -4.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 141.5 | -115 | +1.7% | -105 | -6.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 142 | -110 | +1.6% | -110 | -6.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Notre Dame 94% to beat Mercyhurst (6%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Notre Dame the more likely winner at 94%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Notre Dame a 94% chance of beating Mercyhurst, against 6% for Mercyhurst. Notre Dame are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Mercyhurst (0-1 so far) project to finish 11.7–17.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Notre Dame project to finish 14.7–14.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst | 11.7–17.3 | 12% | 0% |
| Notre Dame | 14.7–14.3 | 1% | 15% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Mercyhurst and Notre Dame come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.