UAlbany
Manhattan
Win Probability
Manhattan hosts UAlbany in a matchup where the simulation favours the home side. Ben Tweedy has a 49% chance of exceeding 20 points, rebounds and assists, while Pedro Santos sits at 46% for the same threshold—a marginal separation that reflects how tightly the model expects this game to play out. The outcome hinges on perimeter execution; neither team's projection suggests dominant interior play. Across eight prior games with similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's model went 4-4. For UAlbany to pull the upset, the Danes would need to win the assist and perimeter-shooting battle against a Manhattan side favoured to control the pace.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MAN | EV | UALB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -175 | -0.0% | +145 | -5.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -182 | -0.7% | +150 | -4.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -170 | +0.5% | +145 | -5.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -175 | -0.0% | +145 | -5.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -200 | -2.3% | +155 | -3.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 63.6%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Manhattan 64% to beat UAlbany (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Manhattan the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Manhattan a 64% chance of beating UAlbany, against 36% for UAlbany. Manhattan are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UAlbany project to finish 12.2–18.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Manhattan (0-1 so far) project to finish 11.7–19.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UAlbany and Manhattan come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.