NCAAB
Vermont
Fairfield
Win Probability
Fairfield hosts Vermont in a matchup the model sees as essentially even, with the slightest lean toward the home team. The simulation projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on perimeter shooting: both offences will need their outside game to fall in range for their side to pull away. On games with this win-probability shape across eight past matchups, the favoured side won six times. For Vermont to steal this one on the road, they would need to force Fairfield into an unusually cold shooting night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | FAIR | EV | UVM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -115 | -1.2% | -105 | -3.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -118 | -1.8% | -102 | -2.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -115 | -1.2% | -105 | -3.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -115 | -1.2% | -105 | -3.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -115 | -1.2% | -110 | -4.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 141.5 | -108 | -5.4% | -112 | +0.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 141.5 | -115 | -6.7% | -105 | +2.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Fairfield 52% to beat Vermont (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Fairfield the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Fairfield a 52% chance of beating Vermont, against 48% for Vermont. Fairfield are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Vermont and Fairfield come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Vermont (0-1 so far) project to finish 17.6–12.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 30% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Fairfield project to finish 15.9–14.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →