NCAAB
Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Win Probability
Moneyline
BUF
+1800
7.4% win prob
EV +20.3%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
PITT
-2591
92.6% win prob
EV -1.9%
Polymarket
Buffalo travels to Pittsburgh in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home team. The Bulls face a steep climb against a Panther squad built to control this contest, with AccuScore's model projecting a double-digit margin. On games shaped like this one—where the favorite holds such a pronounced edge—the model has gone 8 for 8 across similar matchups, a track record worth noting. For Buffalo to pull off the upset, it would need to execute at a level the projection simply does not expect, holding Pittsburgh well below its modeled output while generating efficient scoring on its own end.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | PITT | EV | BUF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3600 | -2.4% | +1500 | +9.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4000 | -2.5% | +1400 | +5.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3000 | -2.2% | +1200 | -1.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -6000 | -2.9% | +1800 | +20.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -3000 | -2.2% | +1500 | +9.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 150.5 | -115 | -5.5% | -105 | +1.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 150.5 | -115 | -5.5% | -105 | +1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 150.5 | -115 | -5.5% | -105 | +1.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 151 | -110 | -5.6% | -110 | +1.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | -6.8% | -110 | +2.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Pittsburgh 93% to beat Buffalo (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Pittsburgh the more likely winner at 93%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Pittsburgh a 93% chance of beating Buffalo, against 7% for Buffalo. Pittsburgh are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Buffalo (0-1 so far) project to finish 10.2–18.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Pittsburgh (1-0 so far) project to finish 16.9–14.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 26% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 10.2–18.8 | 1% | 2% |
| Pittsburgh | 16.9–14.1 | 2% | 26% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Buffalo and Pittsburgh come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.