Stonehill
Fordham
Win Probability
Moneyline
STO
+2000
8.7% win prob
EV +41.3%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
FOR
-3464
91.3% win prob
EV -3.0%
Polymarket
Stonehill travels to face Fordham in a matchup the model favors decisively for the home side. The simulation projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on Stonehill's ability to manufacture offense on the road—a steep ask against a Fordham team built to limit possessions and points. AccuScore's record on games shaped this way stands at 8-0 across similar win-probability patterns. For Stonehill to pull the upset, it would need to overcome both the home-court disadvantage and a projection that sees Fordham controlling the pace and the scoreboard throughout.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | FOR | EV | STO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3600 | -3.1% | +1500 | +19.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -3500 | -3.0% | +1280 | +10.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7500 | -3.7% | +2000 | +41.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -3464 | -3.0% | +1221 | +7.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -11.4% | -110 | +6.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -11.4% | -110 | +6.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -11.4% | -110 | +6.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -11.4% | -110 | +6.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Fordham 91% to beat Stonehill (9%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Fordham the more likely winner at 91%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Fordham a 91% chance of beating Stonehill, against 9% for Stonehill. Fordham are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Stonehill project to finish 10.6–17.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Fordham (0-1 so far) project to finish 14.5–15.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Stonehill and Fordham come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.