Northwestern State
Mississippi State
Win Probability
Moneyline
NWST
+2000
5.4% win prob
EV +6.7%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
MSST
-3582
94.6% win prob
EV -1.4%
Polymarket
Northwestern State visits Mississippi State in a matchup the simulation favors decisively for the home side. The Bulldogs project to build a substantial margin, with their offensive execution likely to prove the difference in a game where Mississippi State's ability to sustain scoring will be tested by Northwestern State's defensive resistance. On games shaped like this one across AccuScore's history, the favored side has won all eight. For Northwestern State to pull off an upset, the Red Raiders would need to disrupt Mississippi State's rhythm early and force the kind of shooting struggles that could keep the Bulldogs below their projected output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MSST | EV | NWST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -4000 | -1.5% | +1600 | -4.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -7000 | -2.0% | +2000 | +6.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7500 | -2.1% | +2000 | +6.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -3582 | -1.4% | -108 | -44.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -3.8% | -110 | -0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | -4.8% | -105 | +0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -3.8% | -110 | -0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -3.8% | -110 | -0.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Mississippi State 95% to beat Northwestern State (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Mississippi State the more likely winner at 95%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Mississippi State a 95% chance of beating Northwestern State, against 5% for Northwestern State. Mississippi State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northwestern State (0-1 so far) project to finish 10.9–19.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Mississippi State (1-0 so far) project to finish 13.7–17.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern State | 10.9–19.1 | 2% | 2% |
| Mississippi State | 13.7–17.3 | <1% | 18% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Northwestern State and Mississippi State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Northwestern State have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
Mississippi State have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).