NCAAB
Northern Illinois
Tulsa
Win Probability
Moneyline
NIU
+1100
8.1% win prob
EV -1.4%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
TLSA
-1120
91.9% win prob
EV +0.1%
Polymarket
Northern Illinois travels to Tulsa in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Across eight prior games with similar win-probability shapes, the model has gone 8-0, a perfect record that lends weight to backing Tulsa here. The outcome hinges on three-point shooting: if Northern Illinois can find consistent range, it stays within striking distance, but the Tulsa offense is projected to pull away through the second half. For the Huskies to upset the Golden Hurricane, they would need to force extended droughts on the other end and convert at a rate well above their season norm.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | TLSA | EV | NIU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -1450 | -0.9% | +810 | -13.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -2500 | -2.2% | +1100 | -1.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1120 | +0.1% | +732 | -16.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 154.5 | -105 | -1.9% | -115 | -2.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -3.9% | -105 | -0.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Tulsa 92% to beat Northern Illinois (8%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tulsa the more likely winner at 92%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tulsa a 92% chance of beating Northern Illinois, against 8% for Northern Illinois. Tulsa are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northern Illinois (0-1 so far) project to finish 8.2–22.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tulsa project to finish 19.6–10.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 27% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | 8.2–22.8 | 1% | 1% |
| Tulsa | 19.6–10.4 | 15% | 27% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →