NCAAB
Gardner-Webb
Texas
Win Probability
Gardner-Webb travels to face Texas in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Across eight statistically similar games, AccuScore's model went 8-0, a record that speaks to the strength of the lean here. Texas's depth will be the deciding factor; the Longhorns are projected to dominate the boards and force turnovers at a rate that Gardner-Webb will struggle to match. For the Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' Runnin' R
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | TEX | EV | GWEB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -100000 | -0.1% | +12000 | -37.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -0.0% | +8957 | -40.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -112 | -2.9% | -108 | -1.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -2.5% | -110 | -2.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -2.5% | -110 | -2.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -2.5% | -110 | -2.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 154 | -110 | -1.2% | -110 | -3.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Texas 100% to beat Gardner-Webb (0%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas a 100% chance of beating Gardner-Webb, against 0% for Gardner-Webb. Texas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Gardner-Webb (0-1 so far) project to finish 6.6–21.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas (1-0 so far) project to finish 21.3–9.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 75% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner-Webb | 6.6–21.4 | 1% | 1% |
| Texas | 21.3–9.7 | 9% | 75% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Gardner-Webb and Texas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.