Jacksonville State
South Alabama
Win Probability
Jacksonville State travels to South Alabama in a matchup where the model clearly favors the home side. The simulation hinges on perimeter shooting: if Jacksonville State can establish consistent three-point range, it opens driving lanes, but South Alabama's ability to contest from distance will likely prove decisive. Across eight games with similar win-probability shapes, the model has gone 4-4, a reminder that close contests remain genuinely competitive. Jacksonville State would need to control the pace and limit South Alabama's three-point attempts to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | USA | EV | JXST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -218 | -5.2% | +180 | +4.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -225 | -5.7% | +188 | +5.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -220 | -5.3% | +180 | +4.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -215 | -5.0% | +180 | +4.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -225 | -5.7% | +185 | +5.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 142.5 | -105 | +0.2% | -115 | -4.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 142.5 | -115 | -2.0% | -105 | -2.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 142 | -110 | +0.3% | -110 | -4.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 142.5 | -105 | +0.2% | -115 | -4.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 38.6%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes South Alabama 61% to beat Jacksonville State (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Alabama the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Alabama a 61% chance of beating Jacksonville State, against 39% for Jacksonville State. South Alabama are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Jacksonville State project to finish 16.4–13.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 16% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
South Alabama (0-1 so far) project to finish 14.6–14.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville State | 16.4–13.6 | 15% | 16% |
| South Alabama | 14.6–14.4 | 8% | 7% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Jacksonville State and South Alabama come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.