NCAAB
Jacksonville
Florida
Win Probability
Jacksonville travels to face Florida in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the host Gators. Across eight similar games in AccuScore's record, the model's side has won all eight, a perfect mark that underscores Florida's commanding position here. The visiting Jaguars would need to mount an unlikely offensive explosion—Jacksonville projects to score 59 points, well below what typically keeps games competitive—while also forcing Florida into an uncharacteristic collapse. How the Gators' offense executes will largely determine the margin; Florida's path to a decisive win runs through consistent scoring throughout. For Jacksonville to stay in range, the Jaguars' defense would have to hold Florida well below its 92-point projection and generate sudden, sustained offense of their own.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | FLA | EV | JAX | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.1% | +7000 | -39.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 152.5 | -112 | -5.6% | -108 | +1.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Florida 100% to beat Jacksonville (0%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida a 100% chance of beating Jacksonville, against 0% for Jacksonville. Florida are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Jacksonville and Florida come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Jacksonville project to finish 10.6–16.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida (1-0 so far) project to finish 24.5–5.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 96% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville | 10.6–16.4 | 11% | 12% |
| Florida | 24.5–5.5 | 35% | 96% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →