Toledo
Michigan State
Win Probability
Toledo travels to Michigan State with the simulation decisively favoring the home Spartans. The visitor's path to an upset runs through controlling pace and forcing efficiency, since AccuScore projects the combined score at 153 points—well below what either team would need to win at a fast tempo. Michigan State's offense will likely determine the outcome; the model has little margin for error against Toledo's defense. In games shaped similarly to this one, AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8 across its historical sample.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MSU | EV | TOL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10000 | -0.5% | +3000 | -19.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -30000 | -0.8% | +4000 | -9.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -50000 | -0.9% | +3500 | -14.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -20000 | -0.8% | +6000 | +11.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -0.9% | +770 | -41.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -105 | -2.8% | -115 | -1.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -1.4% | -110 | -3.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | -2.4% | -105 | -2.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 153 | -110 | -2.5% | -110 | -1.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -6.1% | -110 | +1.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan State 98% to beat Toledo (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan State the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Michigan State a 98% chance of beating Toledo, against 2% for Toledo. Michigan State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Toledo (0-1 so far) project to finish 17.6–13.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Michigan State (1-0 so far) project to finish 22.8–9.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 91% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 17.6–13.4 | 18% | 19% |
| Michigan State | 22.8–9.2 | 12% | 91% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Toledo and Michigan State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Michigan State have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Toledo 0, Michigan State 1. The last meeting, on Dec 16, 2025, finished Toledo 69, Michigan State 92.