VMI
SMU
Win Probability
VMI travels to face SMU in a matchup the model favors decisively for the home side. The simulation hinges on three-point shooting: SMU's Boye Ayodeji projects to exceed 2.5 makes at 61%, while VMI's efficiency from distance will need to keep pace for a competitive game. Across eight similar win-probability shapes in the past, AccuScore's picks went 8-0. For the Keydets to pull off the upset, they would need to force turnovers and win the rebounding battle decisively, fighting for a 47% chance the combined score clears the projected total.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SMU | EV | VMI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -10000 | -0.6% | +3000 | -17.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -20000 | -0.8% | +3000 | -17.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -1.0% | +330 | -45.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 158.5 | -115 | +0.9% | -105 | -5.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -2.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes SMU 98% to beat VMI (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes SMU the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives SMU a 98% chance of beating VMI, against 2% for VMI. SMU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
VMI project to finish 6.8–21.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
SMU (1-0 so far) project to finish 19.6–12.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 38% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How VMI and SMU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.