Towson
Utah
Win Probability
Moneyline
TOW
+450
22.5% win prob
EV +11.9%
Hard Rock Bet
Moneyline
UTAH
-541
77.5% win prob
EV -4.1%
Polymarket
Towson travels to Utah looking to upset a simulation that decisively favors the home side. The model's lean rests on Utah's scoring depth: the Utes project to eclipse 74 points, with multiple offensive weapons capable of reaching their individual benchmarks. Towson's path to the upset runs through disrupting that offensive rhythm, a task made harder by the Tigers' own projected output falling short of 67 points. AccuScore's record on games shaped this way—six wins in eight similar matchups—suggests the favored side's advantage is real. For Towson to pull off the upset, they would need Utah's projected scorers to come in well below their simulated output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UTAH | EV | TOW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -600 | -4.8% | +440 | +10.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -550 | -4.2% | +400 | +6.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -550 | -4.2% | +400 | +6.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -600 | -4.8% | +400 | +6.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -575 | -4.5% | +420 | +8.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 141.5 | -105 | -4.4% | -115 | -0.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -5.4% | -110 | +0.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 141.5 | -105 | -4.4% | -115 | -0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -5.4% | -110 | +0.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 141.5 | -105 | -4.4% | -115 | -0.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah 78% to beat Towson (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah a 78% chance of beating Towson, against 23% for Towson. Utah are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Towson (0-1 so far) project to finish 15.8–13.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Utah (1-0 so far) project to finish 13.8–18.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Towson and Utah come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.