Valparaiso
Purdue
Win Probability
Purdue hosts Valparaiso in a matchup where the simulation strongly favours the home side. Across eight statistically similar games, the model's choice has gone 8-0. The Boilermakers' path to a comfortable victory runs through controlling the pace and capitalizing on their scoring advantage, where Purdue's projected output outpaces Valparaiso's by a decisive margin. For the Crusaders to pull off an upset, they would need to shoot well above their simulation and force enough possessions to keep pace. The combined score sits nearly at the total's midpoint, leaving both directions viable.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | PUR | EV | VAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -4000 | -1.2% | +1600 | -10.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4500 | -1.3% | +1600 | -10.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7500 | -1.7% | +2000 | -0.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -4000 | -1.2% | +1800 | -5.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -10000 | -1.9% | +1300 | -17.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 146.5 | -108 | +0.7% | -112 | -5.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | +0.3% | -110 | -4.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | +0.3% | -110 | -4.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | +0.3% | -110 | -4.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | +0.3% | -110 | -4.8% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Purdue 95% to beat Valparaiso (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Purdue the more likely winner at 95%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Purdue a 95% chance of beating Valparaiso, against 5% for Valparaiso. Purdue are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Valparaiso (1-0 so far) project to finish 13.1–15.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Purdue (0-1 so far) project to finish 22.5–9.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 89% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valparaiso | 13.1–15.9 | 4% | 6% |
| Purdue | 22.5–9.5 | 14% | 89% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Valparaiso and Purdue come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met once since 2017: Valparaiso 0, Purdue 1. The last meeting, on Dec 7, 2017, finished Valparaiso 50, Purdue 80.