NCAAB
UNC Greensboro
Elon
Win Probability
UNC Greensboro travels to face Elon in a matchup the model clearly favors for the home side. The simulation hinges on perimeter shooting: if Elon's offense can sustain its volume from three, the hosts pull away; if UNC Greensboro's defense tightens up there, an upset becomes plausible. Across eight similar games in AccuScore's record, the favored side won four times. For the Spartans to steal this one on the road, they would need to force enough turnovers to slow Elon's pace and keep the game in the mid-60s.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | ELON | EV | UNCG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -290 | -4.5% | +235 | +4.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -335 | -6.1% | +265 | +9.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -280 | -4.1% | +230 | +3.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -330 | -6.0% | +260 | +8.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -443 | -8.6% | -160 | -23.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 32.4%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Elon 68% to beat UNC Greensboro (32%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Elon the more likely winner at 68%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Elon a 68% chance of beating UNC Greensboro, against 32% for UNC Greensboro. Elon are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UNC Greensboro project to finish 15.0–14.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Elon (1-0 so far) project to finish 13.2–16.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Greensboro | 15.0–14.0 | 12% | 11% |
| Elon | 13.2–16.8 | 4% | 4% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UNC Greensboro and Elon come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.