James Madison
Kentucky
Win Probability
James Madison travels to face Kentucky in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Across eight comparable games in AccuScore's history, the model's pick won all eight, a record that speaks to the strength of Kentucky's advantage here. The game turns on three-point shooting: if James Madison can sustain volume from distance, the Wildcats' projected margin narrows considerably, but the visitors would need an outlier performance to threaten the outcome. For James Madison to pull off the upset, perimeter creation and efficiency would have to reach levels the model projects as unlikely in a single game.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UK | EV | JMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -9000 | -0.9% | +2500 | -13.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -30000 | -1.2% | +4000 | +7.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -50000 | -1.3% | +3500 | +0.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -0.9% | +3500 | +0.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -1.0% | +222 | -45.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 158.5 | -105 | -7.7% | -115 | +3.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 156.5 | -115 | -4.9% | -105 | +0.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 158 | -110 | -7.4% | -110 | +3.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 157.5 | -115 | -7.2% | -105 | +2.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 158 | -105 | -6.5% | -115 | +1.9% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Kentucky 97% to beat James Madison (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Kentucky the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kentucky a 97% chance of beating James Madison, against 3% for James Madison. Kentucky are at home and favoured on these numbers.
James Madison (0-1 so far) project to finish 15.2–13.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kentucky (1-0 so far) project to finish 20.7–11.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 72% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 15.2–13.8 | 8% | 7% |
| Kentucky | 20.7–11.3 | 7% | 72% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How James Madison and Kentucky come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.