NCAAB
East Tennessee State
NC State
Win Probability
NC State hosts East Tennessee State in a game the model favors decisively for the home side. The simulation turns on whether the Buccaneers can generate enough perimeter scoring to stay competitive; East Tennessee State will need to find their rhythm from distance to keep pace with a NC State team projected to control the game. In eight prior matchups with a similar win-probability shape, AccuScore's pick went 8-0. For the Buccaneers to pull off the upset, they would need to buck that historical trend while holding NC State well below projection in a road environment.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | NCSU | EV | ETSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1450 | -2.0% | +850 | -1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -3000 | -3.6% | +1200 | +16.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -2000 | -2.9% | +1000 | +6.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -2500 | -3.3% | +1300 | +21.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -2659 | -3.4% | +210 | -34.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | -3.8% | -105 | -0.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 151.5 | -115 | -1.7% | -105 | -2.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -2.8% | -110 | -1.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -105 | -1.8% | -115 | -2.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 152 | -110 | -1.7% | -110 | -2.7% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes NC State 90% to beat East Tennessee State (10%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes NC State the more likely winner at 90%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives NC State a 90% chance of beating East Tennessee State, against 10% for East Tennessee State. NC State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
East Tennessee State (0-1 so far) project to finish 17.4–12.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
NC State (1-0 so far) project to finish 20.1–10.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 49% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Tennessee State | 17.4–12.6 | 17% | 15% |
| NC State | 20.1–10.9 | 5% | 49% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How East Tennessee State and NC State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
East Tennessee State have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).