NCAAB
Austin Peay
Kennesaw State
Win Probability
Austin Peay travels to face Kennesaw State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The projection hinges on three-point shooting: if Austin Peay's perimeter attack stays cold, Kennesaw State's lead should hold, but if the Governors can get hot from distance, they have a path to the upset. In eight similar games across different matchups, AccuScore's lean has gone 6-2, a record worth noting for this configuration. For Austin Peay to pull off the road win, they would need to overcome the home team's advantage and execute at a level the model views as unlikely.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | KENN | EV | APSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -250 | +0.1% | +205 | -6.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -255 | -0.2% | +205 | -6.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -240 | +0.7% | +200 | -7.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -260 | -0.4% | +210 | -6.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1120 | -11.0% | +130 | -17.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 71.6%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Kennesaw State 72% to beat Austin Peay (28%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Kennesaw State the more likely winner at 72%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kennesaw State a 72% chance of beating Austin Peay, against 28% for Austin Peay. Kennesaw State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Austin Peay project to finish 15.2–12.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kennesaw State project to finish 16.1–10.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Peay | 15.2–12.8 | 23% | 20% |
| Kennesaw State | 16.1–10.9 | 20% | 20% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →