Missouri
Saint Louis
Win Probability
Missouri travels to Saint Louis in a matchup where the simulation favours the visiting Tigers clearly. The game hinges on three-point shooting: if Saint Louis can keep Missouri's perimeter attack in check, the Billikens have a path to an upset at home. On games with a similar win-probability shape across the model's history, the favoured side won 75% of the time. For Saint Louis to pull off the upset, they would need to control the tempo and prevent Missouri from establishing their outside game early.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SLU | EV | MIZ | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +118 | -4.4% | -142 | -0.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +120 | -4.0% | -140 | -0.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +125 | -3.0% | -150 | -1.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -129 | -12.9% | -181 | -4.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 161.5 | -115 | -4.8% | -105 | +0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | -3.8% | -110 | -0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 161.5 | -115 | -4.8% | -105 | +0.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 162 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 162.5 | -102 | -4.5% | -129 | -2.0% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Missouri 58% to beat Saint Louis (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Missouri the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Saint Louis a 42% chance of beating Missouri, against 58% for Missouri. Saint Louis are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Missouri (1-0 so far) project to finish 19.1–12.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 63% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Saint Louis (1-0 so far) project to finish 21.5–8.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 47% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | 19.1–12.9 | 4% | 63% |
| Saint Louis | 21.5–8.5 | 26% | 47% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Missouri and Saint Louis come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.