Indiana State
Ball State
Win Probability
Indiana State travels to face Ball State in a matchup the model leans slightly toward the home side to win. The simulation projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on perimeter shooting; Ball State will need to stay disciplined beyond the arc to pull away, while Indiana State must capitalize on three-point opportunities to keep pace. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model went 6-2 across eight comparable matchups. For Indiana State to pull the upset, it would need to overcome the slight home advantage and force Ball State into a shooting night below expectations.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | BALL | EV | INST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -148 | -2.2% | +124 | -2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -152 | -2.7% | +126 | -1.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -145 | -1.8% | +125 | -1.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -150 | -2.4% | +125 | -1.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -160 | -3.6% | -125 | -11.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 147.5 | -112 | -9.5% | -108 | +5.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 147.5 | -115 | -10.0% | -105 | +5.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -9.1% | -110 | +4.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -9.1% | -110 | +4.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 148 | -110 | -10.1% | -110 | +5.7% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Ball State 57% to beat Indiana State (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Ball State the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Ball State a 57% chance of beating Indiana State, against 43% for Indiana State. Ball State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Indiana State (0-1 so far) project to finish 11.3–16.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Ball State (0-1 so far) project to finish 10.5–17.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana State | 11.3–16.7 | 3% | 5% |
| Ball State | 10.5–17.5 | 2% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Indiana State and Ball State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 3 times since 2017: Indiana State 1, Ball State 2. The last meeting, on Nov 21, 2025, finished Ball State 52, Indiana State 70.