Holy Cross
Villanova
Win Probability
Holy Cross travels to face Villanova in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Villanova's depth should prove decisive: the model projects the Colonials will outscore the Crusaders by roughly 30 points, with the game turning on whether Holy Cross can generate enough offensive production to stay competitive. In eight prior games with a similar win-probability shape, AccuScore's favored side went 8-0. For Holy Cross to pull off the upset, they would need to break that historical pattern while generating a level of offensive efficiency well above what the simulation expects from a visiting team in this spot.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | VILL | EV | HC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.2% | +8000 | -25.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -3.1% | -110 | -1.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -3.1% | -110 | -1.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -3.1% | -110 | -1.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 150.5 | -125 | -5.8% | -125 | -4.2% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Villanova 99% to beat Holy Cross (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Villanova the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Villanova a 99% chance of beating Holy Cross, against 1% for Holy Cross. Villanova are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Holy Cross (0-1 so far) project to finish 8.2–21.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Villanova project to finish 17.4–12.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 49% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holy Cross | 8.2–21.8 | 2% | 2% |
| Villanova | 17.4–12.6 | 7% | 49% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Holy Cross and Villanova come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.